Mathhammer 40k: Which Eldar Tanks are the Best?

Which Eldar Tank truly is the best for each situation? I did the math to find out! The numbers below are averages over the long run of thousands of dice rolls. It is a study on which tank is statistically better over the long run, and which is more likely to perform better in the short run. Each tank costs very close to the same amount, especially with weapon upgrades factored in, so point-efficiency is pretty closely tied to this study. Also note that I chose what I believe to be the best, most common loadouts for Wave Serpents and Falcon. These loadouts are not the best at EVERYTHING, but they are the best at more things than any other loadouts for those vehicles. Finally, with Fire Prisms and Falcons, I did not factor in the twin-linked shuriken catapaults, because these tanks are generally long-range fire support, and will rarely if ever be within 12'' range to use those weapons on infantry. I believe this is fair.


Eldar Tank Analysis

Wave Serpent Load-Out: Twin-Linked Scatter Laser, Shuriken Cannon, Serpent Shield (shooting every trial)
Falcon Load-Out: Bright Lance, 2 Pulse Lasers
Fire Prism Load-Out: Prism Cannon (optimal shot type used on each target)

vs T3 5+ Guardians, Guardsmen, Pathfinders:

Wave Serpent - Total: 6.18 unsaved wounds. (likely 6 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.78 unsaved wounds (likely 3 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T3 4+ Fire Warriors, Dire Avengers:

Wave Serpent - Total: 4.28 unsaved wounds. (likely 4 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.78 unsaved wounds (likely 3 kills)
Falcon- Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T3 3+ Aspect Warriors:

Wave Serpent - Total: 2.97 unsaved wounds (likely 3 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.78 unsaved wounds (likely 3 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T4 6+ Orks:

Wave Serpent -Total: 7.18 unsaved wounds (likely 7 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.22 unsaved wounds (likely 2 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T4 4+ Scouts, ‘ard Boyz

Wave Serpent - Total: 4.28 unsaved wounds (likely 4 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.22 unsaved wounds (likely 2 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T4 3+ Marines, Necrons, Crisis Suits

Wave Serpent - Total: 2.97 unsaved wounds (likely 3 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 2.22 unsaved wounds (likely 2 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T4 2+ Terminators, Meganobs, Broadsides

Wave Serpents - Total: 1.72 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)
Fire Prism - Total: 1.11 unsaved wounds (likely 1 kills)
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds. (likely 2 kills)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs T6 3+ monstrous creatures:

Wave Serpent - Total: 1.77 wounds
Fire Prism - Total: 0.56 unsaved wounds
Falcon - Total: 1.67 unsaved wounds

Winner: Wave Serpent.

INFANTRY SUMMARY: WAVE SERPENT IS ALWAYS THE BEST.
Against every single enemy infantry target (all non-vehicles), Wave Serpents outperform the other tanks.


vs AV10 2HP vehicles:

Wave Serpent - Total: 5.49 hull points, 3.86 penetrations, 0.64 chance of explode (likely 3.39 killed)
Fire Prism - Total: 0.67 hull points, 0.56 penetrations, 0.19 chance of explode (likely 0.43 killed)
Falcon - Total: 1.66 hull points, 1.33 penetrations, 0.44 chance of explode (likely 1.05 killed)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs AV11 2HP vehicles:

Wave Serpent - Total: 3.86 hull points, 2.23 penetrations, 0.37 chance of explode (likely 2.12 killed)
Fire Prism - Total: 0.55 hull points, 0.44 penetrations, 0.07 chance of explode (likely 0.31 killed)
Falcon - Total: 1.33 hull points, 1 penetration, 0.33 chance of explodes (likely 0.83 killed)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs AV12 3HP:

Wave Serpent - Total: 2.21 hull points, 0.59 penetrations, 0.10 chance of explodes (likely 0.77 killed)
Fire Prism - Total: 0.44 hull points, 0.33 penetrations, 0.11 chance of explodes (likely 0.18 killed)
Falcon - Total: 0.99 hull points, 0.66 penetrations, 0.22 chance of explodes (likely 0.40 killed)

Winner: Wave Serpent.

vs AV13 3HP:

Wave Serpent - Total: 0.59 hull points (likely 0.20 killed)
Fire Prism - Total: 0.44 hull points, 0.33 penetrations, 0.11 chance of explodes (likely 0.18 killed)
Falcon - Total: 0.77 hull points, 0.44 penetrations, 0.15 chance of explodes (likely 0.31 killed)

Winner: Falcon.

vs AV14 4HP:

Wave Serpent - Total: 0 hull points.
Fire Prism - Total: 0.44 hull points, 0.33 penetrations, 0.11 chance of explodes (likely 0.18 killed)
Falcon - Total: 0.55 hull points, 0.22 penetrations, 0.07 chance of explodes (likely 0.16 killed)

Winner: Fire Prism (barely!).

VEHICLE SUMMARY: WAVE SERPENT IS BEST BELOW AV13. FALCON IS BEST ABOVE AV12.
Against vehicle targets AV10, 11, and 12, the Wave Serpent is still the best choice. For AV13 and AV14, however, the Falcon and Fire Prism respectively do the job better. They are both fairly close to one another, but my money is on the Falcon for dealing more hit points than the Fire Prism and having only a marginally lower chance of exploding AV14.


HOWEVER! Just because Fire Prisms and Falcons perform better than a Wave Serpent at high AV targets does not mean they are the best tool for the job in the entire Eldar Codex! They actually perform quite poorly. The best heavy vehicle hunters for cost will almost certainly be the Fire Dragons.