Analysis of the Eldar Wraithknight

The Wraithknight is a new unit to the Eldar army.  It's as big as an Apocalypse Titan.  It's 240 points, and close to $100.  It's also pretty dang ugly.  But just how does it play on the tabletop?  What role does it fill, and is it worth its massive point cost?  Let's figure it out!



First, let's look at survivability.  The Wraithknight has two viable configurations: Twin Wraithcannon, and Suncannon + Shield, for 40 points more.  Is this 40 points worth the cost, in terms of only survivability?

To cause one wound to a standard Wraithknight at Toughness 8, you'll need to land 6 S5 hits, 6 S6 hits, 3 S7 hits, 2 S8 hits, 1.5 S9 hits, or 1.16 S10 hits.  The Wraithknight also has a 3+ armor save.  Most weapons under S8 are not AP3 or less.  Therefore, 2/3 of the wounds caused by S5, S6, and S7 hits will be saved, while S8, S9, and S10 hits will not be saved.  So here are the final numbers:

To cause one unsaved wound to a standard Wraithknight:
18 S5/S6 hits
9 S7 hits
2 S8 hits
1.5 S9 hits
1.16 S10 hits

And since a Wraithknight has SIX wounds... :
To kill a Wraithknight:
108 S5/S6 hits (5 units of 10 Fire Warriors or Warp Spiders at 15/12 inch range)
54 S7 hits (4 units of 3 Crisis Suits)
12 S8 hits (4 units of Long Fangs)
9 S9 hits (3 units of Long Fangs)
6.69 S10 hits (slightly over 2 units of 3 Broadsides)

Yikes!  That's a lot!

About 600 points must be directed at a Wraithknight to bring it down in one turn, or 100 points per turn over the course of 6 turns.  Most army lists don't have the quantities of these units needed to do that, however.  Most lists will take at least 2 turns of concentrated firepower to kill a Wraithknight.

And now let's add on the 5+ invulnerable save in the 280-point Suncannon configuration:

108 S5/S6 hits (5 units of 10 Fire Warriors or Warp Spiders at 15/12 inch range)
54 S7 hits (4 units of 3 crisis suits)
18 S8 hits (6 units of long fangs)
13.5 S9 hits (4 units of long fangs)
10.3 S10 hits (3.5 units of 3 broadsides)

As you can see, the % benefit increases the higher the strength is.  For S8, S9, and S10 hits, survivability is increased by 1/3.  Since the shield upgrade is only 1/6 the cost of the Wraithknight itself, that's 200% point efficiency!  That looks like a solid choice.

Let's look at some comparisons.  A Wraithknight is roughly the cost of two Wraithlords, each T8 with 3 wounds and a 3+ armor save.  The math works out to be identical, since they have six wounds combined.

A Land Raider is also around 250 points, very close to the Wraithknight.  How hard is it to kill?
At Armor 14, a Land Raider can only be hurt by S8, S9, and S10 weapons.  And it has 4 hull points.  Let's figure it out:

To remove one hull point:
6 S8 hits
3 S9 hits
2 S10 hits

S9 and S10 weapons tend to be AP2, so let's figure out the odds of penetrating:
To Penetrate:
6 S9 hits
3 S10 hits

And to explode, 1/3 of penetrate results:
18 S9 hits
9 S10 hits

Pretty rare.  Doesn't really impact the Raider's survivability much.  Melta is far more dangerous a threat.
2.6 S8 melta hits to penetrate, about 5 to explode.

So to summarize:
To destroy a Land Raider:
24 S8 hits
12 S9 hits
8 S10 hits
5 S8 melta hits

Against S8 and below, the Land Raider is far more survivable than the Wraithknight, although its fairly close against S9 and S10.  Melta is way more dangerous vs a Land Raider compared to the Wraithknight, but the Raider is totally immune to S7 and below. In terms of survivability, the Land Raider wins this one by a long shot, despite being roughly the same cost.

 How about shooting?  Let's see.

2x Wraithcannon Configuration:
2 S10 AP2 shots with Distort special rule at 36'' range
At BS4, that's 1.3 hits.

Against a T6 monstrous creature:
1.11 wounds, no saves, 22% chance of instant death (once every 4.5 turns of shooting).
Average of 2 - 3 turns to kill.

Against an AV14 vehicle:
0.44 pens, 0.66 hull points removed. 14.6% chance of explosion.
Average of 6 turns to destroy.

Against an AV13 vehicle:
0.66 pens, 0.88 hull points removed, 22% chance of explosion.
Average of 3 - 4 turns to destroy.

Against AV10-12 vehicle:
0.88 pens, 1.11 hull points removed, 29% chance of explosion.
Average of 2 - 3 turns to destroy.

From this, it's pretty clear that the Wraithknight will be able to destroy about 250 - 300 points worth in the space of a normal 6-turn game.  IF it is shooting every single turn, and never dies.  The shooting is barely not worth the point cost, because the Wraithknight is pretty likely to die before it can kill this many things.

Next, the Suncannon:
3 S6 AP2 small blasts.
Average of maybe 2 hits per small blast against Terminators after scatter, for 6 hits total, 5 wounds, 3.33 unsaved wounds (5+ invuln), or 1.66 unsaved wounds (storm shield 3+ invuln).

That's a Terminator kill range of 66 - 133 points killed per turn.  Only three turns on average of shooting is necessary to make back the Wraithknight's point cost, if it's able to kill that amount of Terminators in total.  Of course, that's hardly ever the case.

Based no survivability and shooting ability, the Wraithknight is straight up not point-efficient in any configuration.  But there are other factors to consider, as well.  It's a jump monstrous creature, able to move 12'' per turn, which in turn enables it to get into assault.

In assault, it will essentially kill any vehicle or single unit it is up against, except Terminators.  Definitely a better option against vehicles, to kill them in a single assault turn, than to shoot at them for 3 - 6 turns.  This, and all the other advantages in point-efficiency, leads me to the conclusion that the dual-Wraithcannon loadout is simply never a better idea than the Suncannon/Shield loadout.

Another factor in the Wraithknight's favor is the pressure it takes off of your other units.  Because it is a dangerous unit in assault and shooting at elite infantry, most opponents will focus fire on it immediately.  This takes the pressure off of your troops, transports, and other units, allowing them to survive longer into the game, dealing more damage.  Wraithknights really mess up target priority for the opponent if it's constantly advancing, threatening assaults.  Wraithlords fulfill the same role, but don't have the assault move, making them harder to get into assault, and giving the opponent twice as much time to shoot them down.  On the flipside, Lords do have a more versatile loadout with dual Flamers for free, helping them deal with mass infantry better.  Still, considering Lords are half the price but still retain the T8 Sv 3+ statline, they're quite a big threat and hard to kill themselves.

My conclusion:

If you're playing an army that relies on speed and needs a threat magnet and a strong assault unit, the Suncannon Wraithknight is alright.  Otherwise, two Wraithlords are always better.